Polysilicon and wafer production schedules decreased MoM in May, while the center of high-purity quartz sand transactions was weak [SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

SMM May 14:

Silicon Coal

Prices: This week, domestic silicon coal prices have seen a wave of price reductions, with the decline in silicon coal prices showing a coordinated trend across multiple regions. Compared to last week, the price of non-caking silicon coal in Xinjiang dropped significantly by 170 yuan/mt, with the average price reaching 710 yuan/mt. In Gansu, silicon coal prices fell by 50 yuan/mt, with the average price of blended coal reaching 970 yuan/mt and the average price of granular coal reaching 1,130 yuan/mt. In Ningxia, silicon coal prices decreased by 80 yuan/mt, with the average price of blended coal reaching 960 yuan/mt and the average price of granular coal reaching 1,200 yuan/mt. In other regions, price reductions ranged from approximately 80-100 yuan/mt, with the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi reaching 710 yuan/mt and in Inner Mongolia reaching 950 yuan/mt.

Supply: To reduce inventory pressure on silicon coal, some manufacturers have adopted models such as "produce based on sales" and "pre-order production," producing based on demand to maintain silicon coal inventory at low levels and reduce inventory buildup pressure.

Demand: Affected by the recent prolonged downturn in the silicon metal market, silicon plants are facing dual pressures on sales and profit margins. Consequently, the operating rates of various silicon plants remain low, and demand for silicon coal has further contracted, with silicon plants exhibiting strong sentiment to drive down prices during procurement.

Silicon Metal

Prices: Silicon metal prices are consolidating at lows. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt. The futures Si2506 contract fluctuated considerably, with the most-traded contract closing at 8,230 yuan/mt yesterday, down 0.6%. Downstream buyers and traders made transactions based on demand.

Production:

From April to May, both supply and demand for silicon metal were weak, with reductions on both the supply and demand sides. From the perspective of supply-demand balance, the balance began to shift towards slight destocking from April to May, with a monthly magnitude of less than 20,000 mt.

Inventory:

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 596,000 mt on May 8, a decrease of 7,000 mt WoW. Among this, the social general warehouse inventory was 133,000 mt, a decrease of 3,000 mt WoW, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 463,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot cargo), a decrease of 4,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Silicone

Prices

DMC: The current quotation is 11,300-11,600 yuan/mt. This week, domestic DMC transaction prices have temporarily remained stable. However, some monomer enterprises have recently held back from selling and are not providing quotations. Despite this, current inventory pressure remains significant, and it is expected that the mainstream transaction prices will continue to fluctuate in the future.

D4: The current quotation is 11,600-12,300 yuan/mt. Recently, D4 transaction prices have slightly decreased, gradually approaching DMC prices. However, as DMC prices have stabilized, subsequent prices are expected to remain stable.

107 silicone rubber: Current quotes range from 12,000 yuan/mt to 12,800 yuan/mt. This week, downstream enterprises entered the market for appropriate purchases, leading to a slight recovery in the trading volume of 107 silicone rubber.

Raw silicone rubber: Current quotes range from 12,800 yuan/mt to 13,500 yuan/mt. With the cancellation of some tariffs in the trade war, the export market for high-temperature silicone rubber is expected to benefit. It is anticipated that the demand for raw silicone rubber will recover in the near future, with prices remaining stable for the time being.

Silicone oil: Current quotes range from 14,000 yuan/mt to 14,500 yuan/mt. This week, silicone oil prices remained stable, with downstream enterprises primarily restocking based on immediate needs.

Production:

Recently, monomer enterprises have seen both increases and decreases in their operating rates, resulting in minor fluctuations in weekly production.

Inventory:

This week, the inventory levels of monomer enterprises slightly decreased, alleviating some of the inventory pressure in the industry.

Polysilicon

Price

Yesterday, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon ranged from 37-44 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 37.2 yuan/kg. In the early part of this week, polysilicon market prices were largely stable.

Production

In May, polysilicon production decreased slightly by around 2,000 mt MoM. Multiple enterprises cut production, and the industry meeting held on the 14th once again drew market attention to whether the agreed production cuts would be implemented.

Inventory

Recently, transactions have been limited, but some orders have been shipped, leading to a slight increase in polysilicon inventory.

Wafer

Price

The market prices for N-type 18X wafers range from 0.95-1 yuan/piece, while N-type 210RN wafers are priced at 1.1 yuan/piece. Wafer market prices have slightly decreased, showing a weak trend. However, some leading manufacturers are now standing firm on quotes, and wafer prices are gradually approaching their lows.

Production

In May, wafer production decreased by around 3 GW MoM. Further production cuts by individual specialized enterprises have led to a continued decrease in production.

Inventory

Recently, market transactions have been extremely limited, with cautious purchasing sentiment. Inventory levels have remained largely stable.

High-purity quartz sand 

Price

Currently, the prices for domestic inner-layer sand range from 60,000-73,000 yuan/mt, middle-layer sand from 33,000-45,000 yuan/mt, and outer-layer sand from 18,000-25,000 yuan/mt. This week, domestic wafer enterprises have continued to exert pressure, causing the transaction centers for crucibles and quartz sand to shift downward. Additionally, after the cancellation of some tariffs in the trade war, there is an expected decrease in imported sand prices, resulting in a poor market transaction atmosphere.

Production

This week, the operating rates for quartz sand production have remained relatively stable, with leading enterprises maintaining low operating rates.

Inventory

This week, the inventory levels of sand enterprises have further increased, with weak purchase intentions from crucible enterprises and raw material inventory not yet fully consumed.

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